Super Thursday: maybe a majority in Holyrood, a coalition on the cards in the Senedd
We’re almost there! Those who haven’t organised and sent in their postal votes this time will be weighing up whether to head to the polls tomorrow and, if so, who to vote for.
And in Scotland, those last minute decisions could make all the difference: while there’s never been any doubt as to who will be leading the next Government, the absolutely stonking majority that Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP seemed on track for a few months ago has receded. Instead, I’m forecasting that the SNP will indeed win a majority — of just one seat!
65 seats would, of course, be the second best performance by the SNP and would represent a gain of two seats. I’m forecasting a drop of two seats for the Conservatives (they’ve shown a measure of recovery in the final polls). Labour’s drop of five would be a major blow to Anas Sarwar: while his personal numbers have been positive, the party still has not recovered its mojo in Scotland and it would appear that the Tories’ relentless “Stop Indyref2” message has captured floating voters, while Sarwar’s “we have better things to talk about” message hasn’t won over wavering independence supporters. And crashing into the teens would be a major psychological blow for the party. On the other hand, the Greens look set to break into double figures for the first time, with a net gain of five. The LibDems look set to remain on five seats overall.
The first order of business for Session 6 of the Scottish Parliament will be to elect a new Presiding Officer to succeed Ken McIntosh. If my projection is accurate, the SNP should be very reluctant to nominate anyone, as they would end up losing their majority on the first day should the be elected to the Chair and expected to suspend their party affiliation for the Parliamentary term. I’d wager good money on a Green MSP taking the Chair when MSPs next meet.
Wales: Drakeford by default?
While polling in Wales has been comparatively scarce, the last polls to be conducted to paint a consistent picture: Labour clearly the largest party, not securing a majority, and with only one viable Coalition partner.
I’m finally sticking my neck out and forecasting a net loss of one seat for Labour. The Tories look set to regain second place with 16 seats, a net gain of five. Plaid Cymru will have a mixed night, potentially losing an MS in Mid & West Wales but gaining one in South Wales East, and regaining the seats lost when Dafydd Elis Thomas resigned from the party, and Neil McEvoy was expelled. The LibDems will remain on one. An important question is what will happen to the seats won by UKIP in 2016: of course, their group scattered to the four winds almost as soon as they took their seats. It will be interesting to see if the three Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party MSs I’m expecting to be elected can form a more cohesive group.
But the big question, of course, is who will form the government? The only combination of parties not involving Labour that can get to 31 seats is Conservative-Plaid-Abolish. That might be mathematically viable but it’s not politically viable as the Tories and Plaid won’t work with each other, and it’s hard to see Abolish joining a government they wish didn’t exist in any case. So we’re left with Labour continuing to form the administration as it has done since 1999. Its net loss of seats combined with LibDem inertia means that continuing with their support isn’t enough, and the idea of them coalescing with Abolish or the Tories is absurd, so unless they can peel off individual MSs from other parties, then their only option is to talk to Plaid. The decision both parties have to make is, can they form another joint government, like the One Wales Coalition that ran from 2007 to 2011, or will they opt for a looser, confidence-and-supply arrangement?
It’ll be strange not watching results come in overnight, but it’s going to be an exciting couple of days, and in both Scotland and Wales, it could be a fascinating couple of weeks afterwards, as the parties come to terms with the results — whatever they may be!
