Are the SNP’s troubles cutting through? Not that much…

Ever since the SNP won the 2007 Scottish Election, the opposition parties have been sticking doggedly to the strategy of waiting for the party to mess up, then hoping they can capitalise.

So it’s no surprise that with the many internal rows that the SNP is dealing with, which seem to have coalesced into one big row, would be met with ill-concealed glee by the other parties, especially with the drama of Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon testifying against one another in the past two weeks.

And yet. People clearly have noticed what’s going on, but opinion is divided: if you support Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP anyway, you’re more likely to be sympathetic to her and stick with the SNP. If you don’t, you’re more likely to side with Alex Salmond and remain with any party other than the SNP. To the extent that opinion is moving, it’s polarising.

We saw this on Thursday: one poll published that morning by Savanta ComRes, should the SNP on 48% on the Constituency Vote (a drop of six points against their poll last month) and 40% on the Regional Vote (a drop of three points). That would be enough to put the SNP’s hopes of regaining their majority in Holyrood in serious doubt for the first time in about a year.

But a few hours later, another poll was published by YouGov. That showed the SNP on 52% on the Constituency Vote (a drop of four points against their last poll in November), and 45% on the Regional Vote (a drop of two points): smaller drops from a higher base, still showing the SNP on track to rack up their highest ever total of seats.

My hunch? These are both outliers, and the trend is yet to emerge. All the same, I’ve taken a stab at a projection of where opinion is in Scotland. It looks like the SNP are still in a good position to just get a majority…

Now that most candidacies have been announced, we’ve even got a good idea of what Parliament will look like.

Central Scotland

The SNP are on track to retain all nine constituencies: Clare Adamson, Jamie Hepburn, Fulton MacGregor, Christina McKelvie and Michael Matheson all look set to be re-elected. Neil Gray’s plan to decamp from Westminster and succeed Alex Neil as MSP for Airdrie & Shotts is on track, Collette Stevenson looks set to succeed Linda Fabiani in East Kilbride, former Edinburgh West MP Michelle Thomson looks like making a return to elected politics as Angus MacDonald’s successor in Falkirk East, and Stephanie Callaghan is on track to succeed Richard Lyle in Uddingston & Bellshill.

On the Regional Vote, it looks like there’ll be one less Tory and that the Greens will bag their first ever MSP in the region. Labour look set to see Richard Leonard, Monica Lennon and Mark Griffin re-elected, with Monique McAdams likely to fill the vacancy created by Elaine Smith’s retirement. For the Tories, Margaret Mitchell and Alison Harris are standing down. Former MP for Stirling Stephen Kerr tops their list, and Graham Simpson can expect to be re-elected. Gillian Mackay is in a good position to complete the line-up for the Greens.

Glasgow

Glasgow is looking like one of the more boring contests: the SNP look good to hold onto all nine constituencies with eight incumbents getting re-elected: Bob Doris, James Dornan (who was going to retire but changed his mind), Clare Haughey, Bill Kidd, John Mason, Ivan McKee, Humza Yousaf and of course, Nicola Sturgeon. Kaukab Stewart looks set to succeed Sandra White in Glasgow Kelvin.

On the Regional Vote, the parties will keep the seats they have. For Labour, Pauline McNeill and new leader Anas Sarwar look set for re-election, and former Glasgow North East MP is on track to replace the retiring Johann Lamont. Pam Duncan-Glancy is in a good position to take the party’s fourth seat, and the one source of drama is that sitting MSP James Kelly’s fifth place looks too low for him to return to Holyrood. For the Tories, Annie Wells is in a good position to be re-elected with Sandesh Gulhane replacing the departing Adam Tomkins, and you can pretty much take Patrick Harvie’s re-election for the Greens to the bank.

Highlands & Islands

Again, the SNP look good to hold on to the six constituencies they’re defending: Alasdair Allan, Fergus Ewing, Kate Forbes and Richard Lochhead must be confident of re-election; current Regional MSP Maree Todd is in a good place to succeed Gail Ross in Caithness, Sutherland & Ross while Jenni Minto is in pole position to succeed Mike Russell in Argyll & Bute. Liam McArthur and Beatrice Wishart look set to be re-elected for the LibDems.

The Regional Vote looks interesting. Nationally, it looks like the Labour vote is dropping further than the Tory vote, and if that happens here, then the Conservatives are in a position to take a fourth Regional seat at Labour’s expense. Tory Leader Douglas Ross is all but guaranteed to come back to Holyrood after four years at Westminster, and he looks set to be joined by all three incumbent MSPs: Edward Mountain, Donald Cameron and Jamie Halcro Johnston. For the SNP, Emma Roddick looks set to enter Parliament, Rhoda Grant is on track to be re-elected for Labour (David Stewart is retiring) and Ariane Burgess is likely to succeed the retiring John Finnie for the Greens.

Lothian

This is one of the more complex regions. The SNP do look like retaining all of their current constituencies with Colin Beattie, Angela Constance, Ash Denham, Fiona Hyslop, Gordon Macdonald and Ben Macpherson being re-elected. But they look like making two gains as well: Tory Group Leader Ruth Davidson’s much-anticipated departure for the House of Lords creates a vacancy in Edinburgh Central which former SNP Depute Leader looks the narrow favourite to fill right now, and Catriona MacDonald is in position to beat Labour’s Daniel Johnson to Edinburgh Southern. Alex Cole-Hamilton looks likely to hold on to Edinburgh Western for the LibDems.

But that result in Edinburgh Southern is going to have a knock-on effect on the Regional Vote. Labour’s constituency loss looks like being offset by an extra Regional seat, which will thwart the Greens’ attempts to regain their second seat lost when Andy Wightman quit the party.

For the Tories, Miles Briggs is set to be re-elected along with newbie Sue Webber and incumbent MSP Jeremy Balfour. Sitting MSP Gordon Lindhurst has been ranked seventh, meaning that his likeliest prospect of returning to Holyrood relies on him defying the polls in Edinburgh Pentlands. For Labour, Daniel Johnson’s constituency loss is neutralised by his being top of the party’s list. He’ll most likely be joined by sitting MSP Sarah Boyack, and Foysol Choudhury who replaces the retiring Neil Findlay. Alison Johnstone looks set to return for the Greens.

Mid Scotland & Fife

It’s doubtful that reporters will spend much time at the counts in this region. LibDem Leader Willie Rennie is on track to be re-elected in North East Fife, while the SNP look good for holding on to all of their constituencies, with Depute Leader Keith Brown, Annabelle Ewing, Jenny Gilruth, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Deputy FM John Swinney and David Torrance all being re-elected. In fact, the only way you’d notice that an election has taken place is the likelihood of Jim Fairlie succeeding Roseanna Cunningham in Perthshire South & Kinross-shire, and Evelyn Tweed succeeding Bruce Crawford in Stirling.

The Regional Vote looks set to be even less entertaining: at the moment it looks like Murdo Fraser, Liz Smith, Dean Lockhart and Alexander Stewart are on track for re-election for the Tories, Claire Baker and Alex Rowley are on course to be re-elected for Labour, and Mark Ruskell is likely to be re-elected for the Greens.

North East Scotland

The North East looks a little more interesting, but not by much. It looks like Graeme Day, Joe FitzPatrick Mairi Gougeon, Gillian Martin, Shona Robison and Kevin Stewart are on track to be re-elected. Jackie Dunbar looks set to regain Jackie Dunbar for the SNP following Mark McDonald’s retirement, Audrey Nicoll is in pole position to succeed Maureen Watt in Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, and Karen Adam looks on course to succeed Stewart Stevenson in Banffshire & Buchan Coast. As things stand, I’d expect Alexander Burnett to retain Aberdeenshire West for the Tories.

The Regional Vote is slightly more interesting, with a lot of new faces, and the Tories likely to lose a seat to the Greens. A total of six sitting Regional MSPs are retiring here, with Bill Bowman, Peter Chapman and Tom Mason all standing down for the Tories, both Labour MSPs Lewis Macdonald and Jenny Marra quitting, and LibDem Mike Rumbles calling time on his Parliamentary career. For the Tories, Liam Kerr looks like being the only sitting North East Regional MSP to get re-elected, and he should expect to be joined by Douglas Lumsden and Maurice Golden, who’s returning to his old stomping grounds in the region following a term as an MSP for West Scotland. Labour’s two seats look set to be filled by Michael Marra and Mercedes Villalba, Maggie Chapman will take the Greens’ gain in the region, and Rosemary Bruce will complete the line-up for the LibDems.

South Scotland

As things stand, the South looks like being the most brutal of the regions, with four sitting MSPs likely to find themselves on the wrong end of results. Willie Coffey and Christine Grahame are favourites to retain their seats for the SNP. Elena Whitham should be the favourite to succeed Jeane Freeman in Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley while Màiri McAllan should succeed Aileen Campbell in Clydesdale. As things stand, Siobhan Brown has a good chance of ousting Tory John Scott in Ayr, while Paul McLennan looks set to capitalise on former Labour Leader Iain Gray’s retirement to take East Lothian for the SNP. Finlay Carson, Rachael Hamilton and Oliver Mundell should all feel confident of being re-elected for the Tories.

The Regional Vote is going to be messy. The SNP’s two likely constituency gains look like creating two vacancies for other parties to take, with Labour in a position to cancel out their loss in East Lothian, and the Greens best placed to take a seat. This means that while the SNP can be confident of Emma Harper being re-elected, Joan McAlpine and Paul Wheelhouse are left hoping they can win their constituency contests against the odds. The Tories can be confident of regaining the seat they lost when Michelle Ballantyne quit the party (ultimately joining Reform UK), with Craig Hoy joining sitting MSP Brian Whittle. For Labour, sitting MSP Colin Smyth looks set to be joined by Carol Mochan and former East Lothian MP Martin Whitfield, but Claudia Beamish’s fourth place on the list looks too low to see her re-elected. The Greens’ Laura Moodie looks like she’ll be elected too.

West Scotland

The last of the Regions isn’t quite as dramatic as the South, but still has some key contests to watch. You’d expect the SNP’s George Adam, Tom Arthur, Kenneth Gibson, Ruth Maguire, Rona Mackay and Stuart McMillan. Marie McNair is the favourite to succeed Gil Paterson in Clydebank & Milngavie, Natalie Don looks set to reclaim Renfrewshire North & West for the SNP replacing Derek MacKay who remains suspended from the party, and watch out for Toni Giugliano, who must surely fancy his chances of defeating Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie in Dumbarton. Former Tory Leader Jackson Carlaw looks like he’ll be re-elected.

On the Regional Vote, it looks like the numbers will remain the same: three Tories, three Labour and one Green. For the Tories, Russell Findlay looks likely to be elected along with sitting MSP Jamie Greene and Pam Gosal. Maurice Golden is, of course, decamping to the North East, and sitting MSP Maurice Corry is ranked eighth on the Tory list and trying to make his voice heard in a tough contest between the SNP and Labour in Dumbarton, so he’s as good as gone. For Labour, Jackie Baillie’s position as Deputy Leader gives her a much-needed insurance policy at the top of the list, with sitting MSP Neil Bibby and former MP Katy Clark looking set to complete the line-up. Mary Fee is retiring, as is now Presiding Officer Ken McIntosh. Ross Greer can be confident of re-election for the Greens.