Co-efficient Corner: The stakes are getting higher!
Three rounds down, one to go! The Third Qualifying Round is now complete, and we have only the play-offs to get through before we know who’ll be playing in the League Stages of which competition. So let’s look back at what happened, and where we go from here…
More upsets
One odd quirk of this year’s qualifiers is how stable the number of ties that go against the co-efficient is: 20 ties were upsets in the First Qualifying Round, then 18 in the Second Qualifying Round. This time, we managed 19 upsets. This is particularly curious when you realise the different number of ties in each round: 44 in QR1, 71 in QR2 and 53 this time. So 19 upsets out of 53 ties makes for an upset rate of 36% — marginally higher than the overall tally: 57 out of 168, for an overall upset rate of 34%.
This is fun for the neutral, and the unpredictability makes the qualifiers worth watching, even if you’re not that familiar with the teams involved, but I still think that observers at UEFA HQ will be scratching their heads: UEFA want the best teams in their competitions for longer, and that’s the whole point of seeding, but with more than a third of ties going against the co-efficient, surely someone in UEFA is pondering their current definition of ‘best’.
Anyway. Out of ten Champions League ties, three resulted in upsets: in the Champions Path, Allsvenskan Champions Malmö beat PAOK after Extra Time, setting up a play-off against Sparta Prague while the Greek Champions play Shamrock Rovers in the Europa League. Danish Champions Midtjylland beat Ferencváros 3–1 on aggregate and now face Slovan Bratislava while the Hungarians meet Bosnian Champions Borac Banja Luka in the Europa League. In the League Path, two late Dynamo Kyiv goals consigned Rangers to the Europa League: the Ukrainian runners-up now face Salzburg.
There were five upsets in the Europa League. In the Champions Path, Borac beat Faroese Champions KÍ who now play-off for a Conference League place against HJK Helsinki. Dinamo Minsk beat Lincoln Red Imps and now come up against Anderlecht, while Gibraltar’s Champions face Larne. And Petrocub Hîncești held on to beat The New Saints: the Moldovans meet Ludogorets Razgrad in the play-off, while the Welsh Champions come up against Lithuanian Champions Panevėžys.
In the Main Path, Switzerland’s Lugano scored in Extra Time to beat Partizan Belgrade on aggregate, setting up a tie against Beşiktaş while Partizan now face Gent in the Conference League. Meanwhile, Elfsborg claimed yet another scalp in Croatia’s Rijeka: the Swedish surprise package now face an all-Nordic tie against Molde, while Rijeka have an all-Balkan tie against Olimpija Ljubljana.
As always, the majority of the upsets were in the Conference League with eleven in total. In the Champions Path, Víkingur Reykjavík beat Flora Tallinn and will be looking forward to a play-off against Andorra’s UE Santa Coloma. Larne needed penalties to beat Kosovo’s Ballkani.
In the Main Path, Ireland’s St Patrick’s Athletic overcame Azerbaijan’s Sabah to set up a tie against Başakşehir. Sheriff Tiraspol’s continued implosion saw them lose 4–0 on aggregate to Olimpija Ljubljana, and Norway’s Brann beat St Mirren to set up a tie against Astana.
Czech outfit Mladá Boleslav beat Hapoel Be’er Sheva and now come up against Hungary’s Paks. Azerbaijan’s Zira beat Croatian side Osijek 2–1 on penalties (all ten were taken) and now face Omonia Nicosia, while one of the most striking shocks came when a late goal wasn’t enough to prevent AEK Athens from crashing out against Armenia’s Noah.
Puskás Akadémia, who got a walkover to this round proved they were more than worthy of the place by beating Ararat-Armenia and now face Fiorentina; Slovakia’s Ružomberok beat Hajduk Split in what was a very bad night for Croatian teams, and now face Noah; and finally, Wisła Kraków beat Slovakia’s Spartak Trnava 12–11 on penalties to claim a play-off spot against Cercle Bruges.
How does this affect the next draw?
Despite all the shocks, it’s a little harder to measure the impact: a draw took place on the Monday after previous qualifying rounds, but that’s not happening this time as the draws for the Play-offs has already taken place and the draws for the League Stage won’t take place until the Play-offs have been completed.
And the material impact of movement between the pots in the League Stage draws is blunted by the new format: as I’ve said before, every team in the Champions League and Europa League now plays two teams from each pot, including the one they’re in. In the Conference League, teams play one opponent from each pot, including the one they’re in.
We can say for certain that as a result of upsets in the Champions League qualifiers, AC Milan will be in Pot 2, while Celtic will be in Pot 3 as well as the winner of the play-off between Young Boys and Galatasaray.
So in terms of practical impact, not much changes: had AC Milan ended up in Pot 3, they would play two teams out of a possible nine from Pot 2, and two from a possible eight in Pot 3. They’ll now play two teams from a possible eight in Pot 2, and two from a possible nine in Pot 3. That’s basically all that changes.
What do we know about the seedings?
The Champions League is mostly cut and dry: we’ve known for weeks that Pot 1 will consist of Real Madrid, Man City, Bayern Munich, PSG, Liverpool, Inter, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig and Barcelona.
We now know for sure that Pot 2 will be made up of Bayer Leverkusen, Atlético Madrid, Atalanta, Juventus, Benfica, Arsenal, Club Bruges, Shakhtar Donetsk and AC Milan.
Pot 3 includes Feyenoord, Sporting Lisbon, PSV and Celtic. They’ll be joined by winners from three play-offs: Lille v Slavia Prague, Dinamo Zagreb v Qarabağ and Young Boys v Galatasaray. That leaves two spots which will go to Salzburg and Red Star if they win their play-offs against Dynamo Kyiv and Bodø/Glimt respectively.
Meanwhile, we know for certain that Pot 4 will include Monaco, Aston Villa, Bologna, Girona, VfB Stuttgart, Sturm Graz and Brest. The winner of Malmö and Sparta Prague will join them, along with one remaining play-off winner, which will be Midtjylland if they beat Slovan Bratislava.
In the Europa League, teams dropping down from the Champions League complicate seeding predictions, but we know the identity of seven teams in Pot 1: Roma, Manchester United, Porto, Rangers, Eintracht Frankfurt, Lazio and Tottenham. Ajax will join them if they beat Jagiellonia Białystok.
And as no one qualifies automatically for the League Stage of the Conference League, there are no certainties at all, but we do know that Chelsea, Copenhagen, Gent and Fiorentina will be assured of Pot 1 if they win their play-offs.
Which countries lost their representation this week?
Estonia lost two teams this week, Paide Linnameeskond weren’t expected to beat Häcken, but Flora unexpectedly joined them. Montenegro also lost both their teams: Dečić and Mornar. Georgia lost Iberia 1999, their sole representative.
Who’s on the edge?
Slovenia still have three teams in Europe, but they’re all in the Conference League: Celje, Olimpija Ljubljana and Maribor. Kosovo will be out unless Drita can pull off a shock against Legia Warsaw. Armenia could lose both Pyunik and Noah. Astana face Brann to keep Kazakhstan involved in this season’s tournaments.
And there are four showdowns: the first is between the Faroe Islands and Finland: KÍ and HJK play each other, with the winner in the League Stage of the Conference League. Both are their respective countries’ last team in this season’s competitions, so it’s make or break. We’ll also lose one of Iceland and Andorra, as Víkingur Reykjavík play UE Santa Coloma. Panevėžys of Lithuania and The New Saints from Wales face off, as do Larne from Northern Ireland and Lincoln Red Imps from Gibraltar. The New Saints, Larne and UE Santa Coloma are vying to be their countries’ first representatives in a group stage.
Highs and lows
The Netherlands remain the highest-ranked country to lose a team — in sixth place they’re also the highest-ranked country who could have lost a team at this stage. Sweden in 24th place remain the lowest-ranked country to have their representation completely intact. Malta are 41st and are the highest-ranked country to be wiped out, though that will definitely change after the play-offs as both the Faroe Islands and Finland outrank them. Finally, Gibraltar, in 54th place, are the lowest-ranked country to have any teams left at all.
What’s at stake in the play-offs
It’s worth noting that once the League Stage starts, match results start counting towards the Club Co-efficient as well as the Country Co-efficient. Clubs in the Conference League will pick up a minimum of 2.5 points regardless of their performance in the League Stage, while clubs in the Europa League will pick up 3 points. And the remaining clubs to qualify for the Champions League will pick up 6 bonus points (up from 4 in the old format) over and above the match points they gain, and those bonus points will be added to calculations for the Country Co-efficient as well: that’s 1 point for France if Lille qualify, 1.2 points for any country with five clubs in this year’s competitions, and 1.5 points for any country with four clubs.
What does this mean? Some big movements in the Club and Country rankings. Lots to look forward to…
