Co-efficient corner: the knockouts are here! But what’s at stake?
Across Europe, top leagues are coming out of their cold storage as teams return to the pitch at the end of their winter breaks. Next year we’ll have to get used to the idea of UEFA competitions playing in January, but we’re now ready for the start of knockout rounds after the conclusion of the last ever Group Stage in December.
Now, let’s look at what teams are playing for…
The Champions League Last 16
As always, the first leg of the Last 16 is spread over two weeks: on Tuesday, Leipzig host Real Madrid while defending champions Manchester City travel to Copenhagen. On Wednesday, Lazio host Bayern Munich, and Real Sociedad travel to PSG. The rest of the teams play next week.
In terms of the Club Co-efficient, the usual points are awarded: two for a win and one for a draw, and the winner of each tie will pick up a bonus point for reaching the Quarter Finals, so across the two legs there are five points up for grabs.
And in terms of the Country Co-efficient, the match points and bonus point are available, divided by the number of teams a country had in European competition to begin with.
So as England and Spain had eight teams in at the start of the season, wins this week for Man City, Real Madrid and Real Sociedad will each be worth 0.25 points for the English and Spanish co-efficients. Germany and Italy each had seven teams in, so that’s 0.286 points. France had six, so a PSG win adds 0.333 points to the French total, and Denmark had four, so a Copenhagen home win will add 0.5 points to the Danish co-efficient.
Less at stake in the Europa League
As this is the knockout play-off round in the Europa League, this week’s games don’t contribute at all to the Club Co-efficient, but the tie itself will: winners will pick up a bonus point for reaching the Last 16.
The Country Co-efficient is where it’s at: results on Thursday will contribute to that. In the early kick-offs, Feyenoord host AS Roma, Galatasaray host Sparta Prague, Shakhtar Donetsk play Marseille (this will be played in Hamburg) and Young Boys play Sporting. In the later games, Benfica play Toulouse, Milan play Rennes, Lens play Freiburg, and Braga play Qarabağ.
So of the 16 teams playing, four are French, three are Portuguese, two are Italian, with Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Türkiye, Ukraine, Czechia and Azerbaijan all providing one team each. On that basis, this week’s Europa League games could add 1.333 points to the French total; one point to the Portuguese total, and 0.571 points to the Italian total. If there’s a winner between Galatasaray and Sparta Prague this Thursday, they’ll net 0.5 points for their country (a draw will see them pick up 0.25 points each), as will Qarabağ if they win. Feyenoord, Shakhtar and Young Boys can pick up 0.4 points, and Freiburg can pick up 0.286 points.
Diminishing returns: even less at stake in the Conference League
The knockout play-off round has no bearing whatsoever on the Club Co-efficient: match points aren’t added, and bonus points aren’t available in the Conference League knockouts until teams reach the Semi-Finals.
But like in the Europa League, this round does contribute to the Country Co-efficient, and there are fourteen countries involved in matches this Thursday. In the early kick-offs, Sturm Graz play Slovan Bratislava, Union Saint-Gilloise play Eintracht Frankfurt, Olympiacos play Ferencváros, and Molde play Legia Warsaw. Later that evening, Servette host Ludogorets Razgrad, Real Betis play Dinamo Zagreb, Ajax host Bodø/Glimt and Maccabi Haifa play Gent in Budapest.
So with two Norwegian teams playing out of four who initially entered this season, there’s a full point available for their co-efficient, and 0.8 points available for the Belgian teams. Slovan, Ludogorets, Ferencváros, Legia, Dinamo Zagreb and Maccabi Haifa can all pick up 0.5 points for their countries; Olympiakos, Sturm Graz, Servette and Ajax will pick up 0.4 points for theirs; Eintracht Frankfurt can bag 0.286 points and Real Betis will earn 0.25 points.
England’s quest for a European Performance Spot
This is going to be a challenging week for England’s 2023–24 ranking: only one English team is playing this week, and only two will play over the fortnight: Newcastle and Manchester United coming fourth in their Champions League groups ended their ability to pick up any more points, while to an extent, the Premier League is a victim of its clubs’ success in the Europa League and Conference League.
Obviously, West Ham, Liverpool and Brighton being in the Last 16 of the Europa League is a good thing, as is Aston Villa reaching the Conference League Last 16, and both clubs and country picked up bonus points for topping their groups. But the fact remains that by going straight into the Last 16, none of the clubs have opportunities to pick up country points this week.
So while there’s only one English team playing this week, and one next week, there are three Italian teams playing this week, and four next week, giving them a chance to extend their lead at the top of the rankings. It’s the other way around for German teams: four playing this week and three next week, so they have an opportunity to establish some daylight ahead of England. And with three Spanish teams involved both this week and next week, they have an opportunity to close the gap on England. Wins for PSG, Lens, Union Saint-Gilloise and Dinamo Zagreb would settle English nerves, but there are a few Champions League ties where English fans will wish both that teams could lose.
Scotland’s automatic place in the League Stage
Similarly, this isn’t a great week for Scotland: with Rangers now Scotland’s last remaining representatives in Europe, and with them not playing until the Last 16, this is an opportunity for Türkiye to widen their gap ahead of Scotland, or for Czechia to close it. Fortunately, for Scotland, Galatasaray are playing Sparta Prague, so they’ll cancel each other out.
So while there’s not much changing from a co-efficient perspective, it’s good to have the knockouts back. Now to sort out my viewing choices…
