Co-efficient corner: The knockout play-offs are done, regular service resumes

What a week! The Europa and Conference League knockout play-offs are complete and we know who’ll face each other in the Last 16, and the first leg of the Champions League Last 16 has been completed. We now have a week to get our breath back, and then we get going again.

The race for Pot 1 next season

As we know, the seeding pots for next season’s League Stage mean a little less as teams play opponents from their own pot as well as the others, so Pot 1 doesn’t confer the advantage it once did. Still, it’s a good indicator as to the favourites for next year, and with this season’s Champions League winners banking a place in Pot 1 regardless of their co-efficient, we look out for the Top 8 teams who are guaranteed a spot — if they qualify for the Champions League at all.

And as only one of the current Top 8 played last week, there was very little movement, and none of the top 5 played: Man City remain on 143 points, Bayern Munich on 136, Real Madrid on 125 and Paris Saint-Germain on 110. Liverpool, who skipped the Europa League play-off round and face Sparta Prague in the Last 16, are still on 107. Inter Milan were the only team to play, and their 1–0 win against Atlético Madrid at the San Siro moves them onto 101 points. RB Leipzig remain on 96 points, as do Chelsea, whose failure to qualify for Europe at all has meant they’ve been on 96 all season.

As there’s a good chance that ninth place will also bag a top seed, there has been some important movement there: having beaten Feyenoord on penalties, Roma pick up a point for qualifying for the Europa League Last 16, moving them onto 92. That’s the same co-efficient as Man United, but as Roma have gained more points this season, they move ahead: when teams are level on the total co-efficient, they’re ranked by which team has picked up the most points in the most recent season, then the season before that, and so on.

The European Performance Spots

Italy remain in top spot: of the four Italian teams playing last week, Napoli snatched a draw with Barcelona, Inter of course beat Atlético, Roma progressed against Feyenoord, Milan lost to Rennes on the night but still advanced to the Europa League Last 16. That’s an extra 0.857 points for their co-efficient and crucially, Italy are now the only country to have all of their representatives still involved in European competition this season. They’re on top with 15.571 points.

Germany opened up a little daylight (but not much) ahead of England: Borussia Dortmund drew at PSV, Freiburg’s extra time winner saw them reach the Europa League Last 16 against Lens, and Eintracht Frankfurt were knocked out of the Conference League by Union Saint-Gilloise. Their modest haul of 0.571 points this week puts them on 14.500 points for the season.

England had a grim week, not helped by the fact that only one English team — Arsenal — was playing and Galeno’s stoppage time winner meant they return from Porto empty-handed. England remain third on 13.875, but the Europa and Conference Last 16 ties mean that for the next two weeks of European football, there will be five English teams playing each week and I would expect that the 0.625-point gap will be reduced significantly if not closed altogether by the quarter-finals.

Spain fell further behind too: Barcelona’s draw and Atlético’s loss were followed by Real Betis drawing their Conference League game at Dinamo Zagreb — not enough for them to advance to the Last 16. That’s a total of 0.25 points for the week and one team fewer in the competition as a whole. They’re on 13.188 for the season.

France, meanwhile, had a week that was simultaneously productive and catastrophic, with half of their European representation knocked out in one evening. Of the six teams who entered UEFA competitions this year, four were playing in the Europa League play-offs on Thursday, and of those four, only one survived! Rennes beat Milan 3–2, but it wasn’t enough to progress to the Last 16. Lens were knocked out by Freiburg, Toulouse managed a goalless draw with Benfica but that got them knocked out as well. It fell to Marseille to beat Shakhtar Donetsk and advance to the Last 16. That’s an extra point for their co-efficient, better than any team above them, and putting them on 13.083. But the loss of three teams will cost them in the long run.

Scotland watching helplessly as the Czechs catch up

With no Scottish teams playing this week, Scottish co-efficient watchers’ eyes were focused squarely on Sparta Prague v Galatasaray: a tie between the countries either side of Scotland in the country rankings. And the result, a comprehensive Sparta Prague victory, was ominous: that win, and Sparta’s advance to the Last 16, was worth 0.75 points to the Czech co-efficient, closing the gap behind Scotland to just 0.8 points.

Türkiye now stand on 37.600 points in the overall rankings, with just Fenerbahçe left in any competition. They face Union Saint-Gilloise in the Conference League Last 16. As things stand, they’re ninth in the rankings, with next season’s Süper Lig winners claiming an automatic spot in the 2025–26 League Stage of the Champions League, and the runners-up starting in the Third Qualifying Round, one round later than next season.

Scotland remain on 35.850 points, with Rangers now the only club flying the flag and facing Benfica in the Europa League Last 16. Türkiye’s gain is Scotland’s loss: next season’s Premiership runners-up will start the 2025–26 Champions League campaign in the Second Qualifying Round, but the winners will hang on to the automatic League Stage spot.

Czechia, however, are breathing down Scotland’s neck on 35.050 points, and have three teams in the Last 16: Sparta Prague’s prize for overcoming Galatasaray is a tie against Liverpool; Slavia Prague face Milan; and in the Conference League, Viktoria Plzeň play Servette. Next season’s title winners are currently entitled to a spot in the 2025–26 Champions League qualifying play-offs, and their runners up will enter the Second Qualifying Round, but a couple of favourable results could see them snatch Scotland’s automatic League Stage spot.

What’s at stake in March

With the international break near the end of the month, the Champions League Last 16 second leg matches and the Europa and Conference League Last 16 ties are the only action. And now, every match counts towards both the Club and Country Co-efficients. There’s also a bonus point up for grabs for reaching the quarter finals of the Champions and Europa Leagues. Lots still to play for…