Co-efficient corner: no Quarters given!

Following a dramatic set of Quarter Finals, we’ve only three games left in this season’s UEFA competitions — let’s see where things stand…

The Top 8 is now a Top 9

Remember that Pot 1 in next season’s Champions League draw will be composed of the winners of this season’s competition, plus the eight teams with the highest Club Co-efficient, and if the winners are one of those eight teams, the ninth-highest team joins them.

It’s worth remembering that the seeding pots mean less in the new League Stage as each team is drawn against two teams from every pot, including the one they’re in, but it does give an indication as to what constraints there are in the draw: so, for example, Man City could play two from Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and PSG, but only two of them.

Anyway, three of the four semi-finalists — Bayern, Real and PSG — are already in the top 8, and the fourth — Borussia Dortmund — will move to either eighth or ninth in the rankings If they win the title.

With that in mind, Manchester City picked up one point for reaching a penalty shootout against Real (they were drawing after 120 minutes). They remain top on 148 points. Bayern Munich close the gap on them having beaten Arsenal to advance to the semi-finals: the three points they gained put them on 143. Both teams are assured of at least a place in the Europa League next season, and while they’re both likely to end up in the Champions League, they can be assured of Pot 1 in either competition.

Real Madrid are now confirmed in third place: their shootout win gives them two points, leaving them on 130: with seven co-efficient points remaining up for grabs this season, they cannot overtake Bayern, nor can they be overtaken. As they are assured of their place in next season’s Champions League, they are guaranteed Pot 1. Paris Saint-Germain are secure in fourth place following their 4–1 win at Barcelona, with three points putting them on 116 overall. As they’re now guaranteed a Top 4 place in Ligue 1, the worst-case scenario for them is entering (and losing) a Champions League qualifier and ending up in the Europa League. Either way, they’ll end up in Pot 1, and in the unlikely event that their season collapses and they end up in fourth, they’ll be seeded in the qualifiers.

Liverpool’s European season came to an end this week, but they did get the last word in with a 1–0 win at Atalanta. With two points this week, they finish the season with 114 points in fifth place on the rankings. Like Man City, they’re guaranteed a minimum of Top 5 in the Premier League and a place in the Europa League. While the Champions League is the likeliest outcome, they’ll be in Pot 1 of either. Inter Milan remain on 101 points and are guaranteed Champions League Pot 1 next season.

AS Roma, now the highest ranked side left in the Europa League, are the only team at the top to move places: their win at Milan and place in the semis gave them three points, putting them on 100 and assuring them of seventh spot ahead of RB Leipzig on 97 points. While the Red Bulls’ European season is over, they’re guaranteed a top 5 finish in this season’s Bundesliga, so will be in Pot 1 of either the Champions League or Europa League.

Finally, in ninth place is Chelsea, on 96 points. Borussia Dortmund are four points behind them in tenth place, and as it happens, four is the minimum number of points Dortmund would pick up if they won the Champions League, in a scenario where they draw both legs of their semi-final against PSG, beat them in penalties, then beat either Bayern or Real on penalties in the final.

The European Performance Spots: Italy plus one

Last week, there were five countries vying for the two places: this week’s matches shifted the picture dramatically.

This was a big week for Italy: Roma beat Milan to progress to the Europa League semi-finals; Atalanta may have lost to Liverpool but still advance to the semis on aggregate; and Fiorentina’s extra time win against Viktoria Plzeň saw them advance to the Conference League semis as well. That’s a point for the Italian co-efficient, putting them on 19.429 for the season. They can now only be overtaken by Germany, so a Top 2 finish is now assured, along with the fifth Champions League spot it delivers.

Germany had an almost perfect week: Bayern and Dortmund both won to book their place in the Champions League semis, while newly crowned Bundesliga Champions Bayer Leverkusen advanced to the Europa League semi-finals with a draw at West Ham. This added 1.142 points to the German co-efficient and widened the gap ahead of third place. While a top 2 finish is not yet assured, with their total of 17.929, a lot now has to go wrong for the remaining German teams for them to lose their place.

While I disputed descriptions of last week for England as ‘abysmal’, the term must surely apply to this week’s performance, not so much for the points haul as for the sight of English teams dropping like flies. Arsenal were knocked of the Champions League with a loss to Bayern; Man City took Real Madrid to penalties but still got knocked out; Liverpool’s 1–0 win at Atalanta wasn’t enough to overturn the first leg defeat; and West Ham’s draw against Leverkusen saw them knocked out as well. Only Aston Villa, who needed penalties to beat Lille in the Conference League, remain in European competition. The English clubs between them added 0.625 points to the English co-efficient for a total this year of 17.375. With only 0.875 points available, Villa need to reach the Final as an absolute minimum if England are to have any hope of nicking second place.

In a reversal of last week, France reclaimed fourth place, and it could only have gone better if Lille had won their penalty shootout. It was a 2–1 win at home to Aston Villa that forced the shootout in the first place, and that backed up an emphatic PSG victory at Barcelona, and Marseille winning at home to Benfica to level the tie on aggregate and win on penalties. These wins added 1.333 to the co-efficient for a total of 16.083. With two teams still in two separate competitions, there are still 2.333 points available to France, so they too have a hope of second place.

Spain, however, had a calamitous week. The defeats and exits of Barça and Atlético Madrid, meant that Real Madrid’s shootout win at the Etihad meant that Spain only put 0.250 points on the board, for a total of 15.313 points. With Real now the only Spanish club remaining in European competition, they could win the Champions League and still only add 0.875 points to the Spanish co-efficient — meaning they can only come fourth at best. Spain is now out of contention for the second European Performance Spot.

It’s worth noting that Belgium and Greece still have representatives in the Conference League as well (Club Bruges and Olympiacos), but the highest Belgium can come is fifth, and the highest Greece can come is ninth.

We have a week off now, but the semi-finals aren’t that far away. Bring them on!