Co-efficient corner: halfway through the Semis…

We might only have got through the first leg of the UEFA Semi Finals, but this week has proven decisive in one way: we now know both of the countries who will claim a European Performance Spot.

Five Champions League places for Italy and Germany

At the conclusion of the Quarter Finals, we knew that Italy would take an EPS, and that Germany were in pole position for the second spot. This week, they confirmed it, and in fact had it tied up with Dortmund’s win over PSG. At that point, Germany sealed their spot, and Thursday’s results had no bearing on that.

But for the record, wins for Dortmund and Leverkusen, and Bayern’s draw against Real Madrid bagged Germany 0.714 points for a 2023–24 total of 18.643 so far.

With Aston Villa losing, England scored no points and remained on 17.375 points — 1.268 points behind Germany, with only the possibility of 0.625 points available.

And as PSG lost and Marseille could only draw with Atalanta, France netted just 0.166 points this week, putting them on a total of 16.250–2.393 points behind, with a maximum of 1.667 points available.

So that seals the deal for Germany, and confirms their Champions League line-up: Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, VfB Stuttgart, RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund. It also reduces the number of English teams who could qualify, which has ramifications for what I described two weeks ago as the Top 9.

And importantly, we now know that all four Champions League semi-finalists will qualify for next season’s competition. In previous seasons, that would be enough for us to rework our projections of who was entering which qualifying round as we’d have enough information to rebalance the access list. This season, it’s a little more complicated.

Rebalancing the Access List

As we know, the new European Competition format has brought new rules about how the Access List is rebalanced if the Champions League winner also qualifies for next season’s tournament through their domestic league: the next country on the access list would take the vacant spot. With the new system, it’s now the team in the Champions Path with the highest co-efficient. As things stand, that’s Shakhtar Donetsk.

But the European Performance Spots present an additional complication: they’re only allocated after the Title Holders’ places have been confirmed (or the Access List has been rebalanced to fill them). This matters because Borussia Dortmund are currently fifth in the Bundesliga, so without the EPS, they’d be looking at a place in next season’s Europa League as things stand.

So as I understand it, if Dortmund remain fifth at the end of this season’s Bundesliga campaign, but then go on to win the Champions League, they fill the Champions League Title Holders’ spot, not the EPS, and it’s the Europa League Access List that gets rebalanced to fill a vacancy caused by Dortmund moving to the Champions League. The vacancy you’d expect Shakhtar to fill wouldn’t be there any longer, and the German EPS would fall to the sixth-placed team in the Bundesliga — currently Eintracht Frankfurt. David Parkes has been following UEFA’s updates on the mechanics of all this and you should be following him if you aren’t already.

For the record, this affects the Europa League Title Holders’ spot as well: Bayer Leverkusen have secured their place in next season’s Champions League already, so if they win the Europa League this season, the Access List is rebalanced with the team in qualifiers with the highest co-efficient getting a bye to the League Stage. That’s currently Benfica, but if Roma turn around their loss to Leverkusen this week, then go on to win the title, while remaining in fifth in Serie A, we run into the delayed application of Italy’s EPS, and it’s the Europa League which gets rebalanced instead.

As for the other semi-finalists, it’s still up in the air: Atalanta are currently sixth in Serie A, so are in contention for a Europa League spot anyway, but a CL place isn’t out of the question. Marseille are seventh in Ligue 1, and the Europa League is now the best they can hope for.

For the Conference League semi-finalists, who have a Europa League place at stake, it’s equally fiddly: Aston Villa are currently in the Champions League places. Club Bruges are currently second in Belgium so would have the choice of a place in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round or taking their spot in the Europa League. As the Champions League qualifiers would come with a guaranteed spot in the EL anyway, I’d expect them to gamble on the qualifiers for a CL place. Fiorentina and Olympiacos would probably need the spot.

In other words, there are still a lot of moving parts yet.

The Top 9 is now a Top 10

I mentioned before that England not getting an EPS restricts who can qualify for the Champions League, and that has implications for the League Stage seedings next season.

Despite their elimination in the quarter-finals, Manchester City remain top of the rankings on 148 points. Bayern Munich picked up a point and move on to 144, and Real Madrid, who drew with Bayern, pick up a point of their own and move on to 131. French Champions Paris Saint-Germain might have lost to Dortmund but remain fourth on 116. All four are assured of Pot 1 in next season’s CL.

Meanwhile, Tottenham’s loss to Chelsea on Thursday sealed Liverpool’s place in next season’s Champions League. The Reds’ have 114 points and will also be in Pot 1, along with Inter Milan on 101 points. Having lost on Thursday, Roma remain on 100 points, and with RB Leipzig now assured of Champions League football, their 97 points and eighth place secure their spot in Pot 1.

Chelsea remain on 96 points, but they can no longer qualify for next season’s Champions League, so tenth place in the UEFA Rankings is now a Pot 1 position: that’s Borussia Dortmund, who moved on to 94 points with their win against PSG.

So with eight of the nine Pot 1 places confirmed, we also know that Bayer Leverkusen and Arsenal will be in Pot 2.

The Champions League is now starting to take shape, and this week’s second legs will prove even more decisive.