Co-efficient corner: halfway through the qualifiers…

Happy August! With Europe’s domestic winter seasons getting underway, and the epic Second Qualifying Round of the UEFA competitions now complete, it must feel that European football is very much back in the swing of things. And with Monday seeing the draws for the play-offs, the League Stages are now within touching distance. Let’s check out some of the key results from the Second Qualifying Round, the play-off draws, and what it all means for the co-efficients…

More seeding shocks

In the First Qualifying Round we saw that UEFA’s definition of an upset might not always meet conventional wisdom. There were some more ‘paper’ shocks this time around, but also some genuine “Yikes!” moments that should have grabbed people’s attention.

However, those moments were sparse in the Champions and Europa Leagues. Out of 14 ties across the Champions and League Paths in the Champions League, the only upset was Romania’s FCSB beating Maccabi Tel-Aviv 2–1 on aggregate: FCSB now play Sparta Prague in QR3, while Maccabi Tel-Aviv face Panevėžys in the Europa League. And in the Europa League, the only upset out of nine ties was Elfsborg’s 3–0 aggregate win over Sheriff Tiraspol: the Swedish outfit now play Rijeka; Sheriff face Olimpija Ljubljana in the Conference League.

So the Conference League was where it’s at: out of 48 ties that took place — I’ll explain that qualification later — 16 of them provided upsets of varying degrees.

The biggest of those shocks was Maccabi Haifa being knocked out by Azerbaijan’s Sabah: with Sabah winning the first leg 3–0, Maccabi Haifa got the tie back to 5–5 on aggregate in Azerbaijan, both teams scored in Extra Time but it was Sabah who prevailed on penalties. They now play St Patrick’s Athletic in the next round.

Next came Dutch outfit Go Ahead Eagles, who lost 2–1 to Norway’s Brann. The Bergen side now play St. Mirren in QR3. Žalgiris Vilnius let a 2–1 first leg lead slip against Cypriot side Pafos, who now face CSKA 1948. Riga FC let a 1–0 home lead slip against Śląsk Wrocław, who now face St. Gallen.

Further down the seedings, Finland’s KuPS lost to Norway’s Tromsø, setting up a tie with Kilmarnock. Iceland’s Breiðablik lost to Drita from Kosovo, who go on to play Auda. While this might not feel like an upset, F91 Diddeleng were the seeded team against Häcken, who crushed the Luxembourg outfit 12–3 on aggregate and now face Paide Linnameeskond. Meanwhile, AEK Larnaca fell to a 5–0 aggregate defeat against Hungary’s Paks, who now play Mornar.

One tie that does qualify as a shock is Austria Vienna’s penalty shootout loss to Finland’s Ilves, who now play Djurgården in QR3. Budućnost’s Extra Time loss to CSKA 1948 perhaps appears to be less of a shock than it is on paper, as does Vaduz’s 5–3 aggregate defeat to St Patrick’s Athletic. Slovakia’s DAC Dunajská Streda losing 6–1 on aggregate to Azerbaijan’s Zira should get some attention though. They play Osijek next.

Strictly speaking, St. Gallen’s 5–1 aggregate win over Kazakhstan’s Tobol was an upset, while Georgia’s Iberia 1999 holding on to beat Albania’s Partizani 2–0 on aggregate feels like more of a shock, and they’re rewarded with a tie against Başakşehir in the next round. Mornar beating Radnički 1923 on penalties was a good night for Montenegrin football, and a bad night for Serbian football.

There was only one shock in the Champions Path: Montenegro’s Dečić beat Georgia’s Dinamo Batumi 2–0 on aggregate, setting up a tie against Finnish Champions HJK.

You’ll notice I referred to 48 ties that took place: there should have been 49, but Dnipro-1 have been forced to withdraw having filed for bankruptcy, so Hungary’s Puskás Akadémia were awarded a 3–0 win in each leg, so a 6–0 win on aggregate. As Dnipro-1 were the seeded team, this would class as an upset had a ball been kicked.

So across 71 European ties, 18 went against the co-efficient — a lower strike rate than in the First Qualifying Round when 20 out of 44 ties did so. That’s still a big return, though: more than a quarter of ties played in the Second Qualifying Round were upsets, and almost a third of ties in the qualifiers so far have gone against the co-efficient. It does make me wonder if UEFA are tracking this, and if someone in the organisation is reflecting on how the co-efficients are calculated at this stage in the competitions.

The impact on the play-off draws

Despite there being fewer upsets than in the last round, the impact of the upsets that did take place on Monday’s draws is bigger than we saw in the Third Qualifying Round draws.

In the Champions League, the defeat of Maccabi Tel-Aviv is good news for Swiss Champions Young Boys: they’ll now be one of the seeded teams. And in the Europa League, Sheriff Tiraspol coming unstuck is good news for Anderlecht, who will be seeded as well.

The main changes come in the Conference League as three teams benefit from a move into the seeded pot: the winners of Corvinul Hunedoara and Astana (Astana being the seeded team); the winners of AEK Athens and Noah (AEK being seeded); and finally, the losers of Molde and Cercle Bruges in the Europa League (Cercle Bruges are the unseeded team in that tie).

Countries losing all their representation this week

With a number of league winners having dropped into the Conference League for QR2, it was now possible for countries to lose all of their European representation, and that’s what happened in six cases.

The highest ranked country to lose all its teams was Malta: Marsaxlokk were knocked out in QR1, but the remaining three teams were knocked out this week: Ħamrun Spartans lost to Kosovo’s Ballkani, Sliema Wanderers never recovered from a first leg 7–0 drubbing by Noah, while Floriana lost to Vitória de Guimarães.

Next came Liechtenstein: their sole representative, Vaduz, were knocked out by St Patrick’s Athletic.

Then there was Luxembourg: while UNA Strassen not making out of QR1 might not be a surprise, this week went terribly for the remaining clubs. Differdange were knocked out on penalties by Kazakh champions Ordabasy; Progrès Niederkorn lost on aggregate to Sweden’s Djurgården, and as we saw earlier, F91 Diddeleng were overwhelmed by Häcken.

It’s hard to believe that Albania are currently 49th in the 2020–25 Country Rankings, but with this year’s wipeout, it’s maybe not that surprising. Vllaznia and Tirana didn’t make it out of QR1; Egnatia were knocked out by Icelandic Champions Víkingur Reykjavík and Partizani lost to Iberia 1999. In theory, Albanian clubs should be looking over their shoulder: there are four countries who, mathematically at least, could overtake them and cost Albania one of its Conference League places in 2026–27. In practice, with a 0.709-point gap over nearest challengers Wales, they’re probably safe, but they’ll be wary of what the redrawn 2027–30 Access List looks like.

In 50th place, North Macedonia do have reason to worry about whether or not they can hold on to the extra Conference League spot they get next year: with Shkëndija and Tikvesh not making it out of QR1, Struga’s defeat to Armenian Champions Pyunik has ended their European involvement this season. They are only 0.375 points ahead of Wales, and The New Saints have at least four games to play with a decent shout of reaching the League Stage of the Conference League, so for 2026–27, the Welsh may reclaim the Conference League place they lose next season.

Propping up the rankings in 55th place, it’s no surprise that San Marino find themselves on the outside looking in for the rest of this season. Tre Penne were knocked out in QR1, La Fiorita found themselves on the wrong side of a 10–1 aggregate loss to Başakşehir, while Virtus took Estonian Champions Flora Tallinn to Extra Time, only for Flora to be aggrieved at such Sanmarinese audacity and score three goals in the additional half-hour.

One team left: who’s hanging by a thread?

Along with the six countries with no teams left, there are nine countries with only one team left in UEFA competitions. Three countries are particularly vulnerable as their remaining teams are in the Conference League.

Of those three, Iceland are the highest ranked: having lost three teams this week, Víkingur Reykjavík are the last Icelandic team standing, and they play Flora Tallinn in Conference League QR3. Larne are the last team remaining from Northern Ireland, and they face Ballkani next. Georgia are still represented by Iberia 1999, who face Başakşehir.

Highs and lows

A couple of final notes: at this stage, Sweden are the lowest-ranked country to retain a full slate of teams in this year’s competitions, in 27th place. Djurgården and Häcken are still in the Conference League; Elfsborg are still in the Europa League so in the worst-case scenario will exit Europe after the Conference League play-offs; Malmö, meanwhile, face PAOK in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round, and having reached that stage, are certain of League Stage football.

On the flip side, the Netherlands in 6th place are the highest ranked country to lose a team, following the exit of Go Ahead Eagles.

So the stage is set — let’s see how things play out…