Co-efficient corner: four games left…

It feels like a long time since the last set of European fixtures, but we’re finally back and the remaining games are coming thick and fast. Let’s see what happened this week…

One big change in the Top 8

There has been an important change in the makeup of the Top 8, but at the very top, there’s not much change: Man City, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid all drew, and each pick up one extra co-efficient point, moving on to 147, 140 and 128 points respectively.

PSG lost to Barcelona and remain on 113 points. They could have been overtaken by Liverpool, but they also lost to Atalanta so stay on 112.

With Inter Milan and RB Leipzig now out of European competition this season, they stay on 101 and 97 points respectively. However, with Inter having secured their Champions League spot for next season, we know for sure that they’ll be in Pot 1 for the League Stage. And AS Roma’s win against Milan sees them move into the Top 8 with 97 points.

They overtake Chelsea, who drop into ninth in the overall rankings, and Man United are in tenth place. Watch out for Barcelona in eleventh place: they’re on 91 points and could overtake Chelsea with two more wins.

The race for the European Performance Spots

There remain five countries vying for the two places, and it’s fair to say that they had mixed fortunes this week.

Italy are still top of the pile and had a productive week: the wins for Roma and Atalanta, as well as Fiorentina’s no-score draw at Viktoria Plzeň, saw their co-efficient increase by 0.714 points: the best haul of any of the Big 5 this week.

Germany had a mixed week, but it was good enough to remain in second place: while Borussia Dortmund lost, Bayern’s draw coupled with Bayer Leverkusen’s two late goals against West Ham saw the German co-efficient increase by 0.428 points.

England’s week could best be described as mediocre. While some have seen their clubs’ collective failure to overtake Germany as ‘abysmal’, there’s still a second leg of the Quarter Finals to come, as well as two remaining rounds, all is not yet lost. And the fact is, England might not have overtaken Germany, but the gap has been closed: while Liverpool’s surprising loss at Anfield and West Ham’s defeat at Leverkusen didn’t help, Arsenal and Man City’s draws and Aston Villa’s win versus Lille added 0.500 points to the co-efficient.

Spain, however, had a good week: wins for Barcelona and Atlético Madrid, along with Real’s draw with City, added 0.625 points to their co-efficient: they still have a big gap to close, but they’re still in with a shout.

France are still in with a shout too, but this week it sounded more like a whimper. PSG, Marseille and Lille all lost, adding a grand total of 0.000 points to their co-efficient. They drop to fifth in this year’s rankings and while it remains mathematically possible that they pick up an extra Champions League spot, their prospects are diminishing.

Scotland lose their automatic Champions League place

Scottish fans had their eyes on Viktoria Plzeň’s match versus Fiorentina on Thursday night: a defeat for Viktoria would keep Scotland in tenth place in the five-year rankings for another week, allowing Scotland to hold on to its automatic Champions League place for 2025–26. It wasn’t to be: a 0–0 draw added 0.25 points to the Czech co-efficient. That means that both countries are on 36.050 points, but as Czech teams performed better in this season, they overtake Scotland, and next season’s Premiership winners won’t be entitled to a guaranteed spot in the 2025–26 League Stage and may have to go through a play-off.

A few pundits are trying to find some bonuses: qualifying matches are more winnable, they argue, so that means more co-efficient points, and even if they lose and end up in the Europa League, well, those games are more winnable, so that’ll mean more points too. Maybe they’re right, but with 6 bonus points available for reaching the League Stage next season as opposed to four in the current system, I’m not so sure.

But all is not lost: under the new regulations, if the Champions League winner also qualifies for next season’s competition through their domestic league, their place goes to the domestic league champion with the highest UEFA co-efficient. As things stand, that could be Rangers, if they win next season’s Premiership.

Of course, that’s something we’ll have to weigh up next season. For this season, Shakhtar Donetsk are top of the Ukrainian League and stand to skip the play-offs. If the Europa League winners also qualify for the Champions League domestically, Benfica are currently best placed to skip two qualifying rounds and land in the League Stage.

Now for the second legs…